January 26, 2026

Preview from my weekly report*

Our Colby CDT program outperformed the S&P 500® Index in 2025 and in 2026 so far. All of our asset management clients have made significantly positive relative returns over the past 15 years while taking substantially less risk. We offer complete transparency, anytime access to your funds, and low fees. You keep control over your money. See: ColbyAssetManagement.com

New Highs confirm a major bull market—

with no significant technical divergences.   

• Net New Highs rose to 288 on Thursday 1/22/2026, the highest level in 52-weeks.
• The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline rose to a new all-time high on Thursday 1/22/2026.
• The Dow Theory again confirmed the major bull market trend this month, when both the Industrial Average and the Transportation Average rose to new all-time, closing-price highs.
• The bull market trend was confirmed further this month by new highs in all of the major US indexes, including the S&P 500 (both weighted and unweighted), the NASDAQ, small caps, and mid caps.
• Of the S&P 500 stocks, 67.4% are above their trailing 50-day Simple Moving Averages, and 68.8% are above their trailing 200-day Simple Moving Averages. Both are near the upper ends of their 52-week ranges.  
• 33 of our 38 major market ETFs are in objectively strong positions, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) above the 200-day SMA.
• Seasonal tendencies favor a bullish trend for the current first quarter of 2026.
• Despite the overwhelming bullish technical evidence, investor sentiment is only neutral--and far below the "excessive greed" levels that typically precede a market peak.
• Major long-term bullish trends produce very big price moves that can last for years. Major trends are highly significant for all traders and investors.

The following industry sector ETFs confirmed new highs this month: XLI, XLB, XLE, XLY, XLV, and XLF.

The US Dollar ETF (UUP, 26.91) fell steeply last week and appears to be heading toward a “Death Cross”--if the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. Further price weakness below the UUP 52-week low at 26.80 would be a bearish trend confirmation.

International Equities (except for China) rose to higher highs on Friday 1/23/2026, again confirming bullish momentum. Emerging Markets (EEM) and EAFE Developed Markets (EFA) prices both rose to new highs and remain bullish. China stocks ETF (FXI) has been struggling since its peak at 42 on 10/2/2025 and  continues to underperform global markets. Avoid FXI.

Metals are confirming bullish momentum. The following metals ETFs rose to new highs last week: Silver (SLV), Gold Miners (GDX), and Gold (GLD). Copper (CPER) also looks bullish as it approaches its 37.51 high of 1/14/2026.

Proceed cautiously with US bond ETFs demonstrating persistent, lagging short-term price momentum: TLT, TIP, IEF, and AGG.

Continue to avoid underperforming ETFs in objectively bearish trends (with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA): Bitcoin (IBIT), Crude Oil (USO), Agriculture (DBA), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Real Estate (XLRE).

11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).

My book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac. This book also received an excellent review in Futures Magazine.

My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.

Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.

According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

Trading and investing involve risk of significant loss. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.            

Syndicate content on these pages

Email Colby about his Custom Research, Analysis, Trading Systems Development, and Investment Strategy
Consulting Services.

Subscribe to our weekly Colby Global Markets Report

MetaStock® technical analysis software powers this technical analysis. Get a free trial and discount price by ordering here.

Preview Colby's Book:
The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators.

Dow Theory Analysis

Gann Angles Analysis

Update on EMA Crossover Signals

Money Management Rules

How To Become A Top Trader.

Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using
"Annual Relative Advantage".

Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".

Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, which is the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.

Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the CMT Association (https://cmtassociation.org/) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the CMT Association's high standards. He also supports the The Technical Analysis Educational Foundation (https://www.taeducation.org/about/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. "The CMT Association is the national organization of investment analysts, stock market analysis professionals, and certified market technicians in the United States."

Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators."
--Bill Meridian, top-ranked investment analyst and international fund manager, www.billmeridian.com

Privacy Policy: Your privacy is important to us. It is strictly against the policy of this website to employ spam, popups, ad ware, or spy ware.

Copyright © 2000-2025
by www.robertwcolby.com.
All rights reserved.
Except as permitted under the
United States Copyright act of 1976,
no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a data base or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
However, quotations are permitted, provided that full attribution is given to: www.robertwcolby.com

Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
Please click here to view this article.

INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
Please click here to view this article.

"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this article.

"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this free article.

"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this free article..

"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)

TradingMarkets.com interviewed
Robert W. Colby, CMT.
View the entire interview online.

Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."

For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
Please click here to contact Colby directly.

Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index.

MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis is a powerful program for your personal computer. It offers more than 250 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements. Click this link for a risk-free trial and discount price on MetaStock® software.