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Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
September 22, 2025
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Major trends can be very persistent.
Highlights from last week’s market action:
- Dow Theory major trend remains bullish. Major trends often last for years.
- Sentiment indicators (which generally follow the price trend) mostly suggest moderately rising Greed, which is normal in a strongly bullish major stock market trend. Greed becomes a potential problem when it is excessive.
- S&P 500 stock Price index ($SPX) trend remains bullish, and shorter-term momentum remains bullish and accelerated last week.
- The Equal-Weight ETF of S&P 500 (RSP) trend remains bullish, but shorter-term momentum slowed since the July price peak and remains indecisive.
- Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their own 50-day SMAs remains indecisive.
- Percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their own 200-day SMAs turned indecisive.
- Number of Net New Highs ($NYHL) remains bullish.
- Cumulative Advance-Decline Issues Line ($NYAD) remains bullish.
- NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) trend remains bullish, and shorter-term momentum remains bullish and accelerated last week. QQQ outperformed since April, and major trends point to continued outperformance.
- Small-capitalization stock index ETF (IWM) trend remains bullish, and shorter-term momentum remains bullish.
- Developed foreign stock market index ETF (EFA) trend remains bullish, but shorter-term momentum turned indecisive and is lagging the stronger momentum of US stocks.
- Emerging stock market index ETF (EEM) trend remains bullish, and shorter-term momentum remains bullish.
- Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) trend turned indecisive, and shorter-term momentum turned indecisive. IBIT underperformed $SPX since 7/14/2025.
- Bond Price index ETF (AGG) trend remains bullish, but shorter-term momentum turned indecisive.
- US dollar ($USD) trend remains bearish.
- Gold futures contract ($GOLD) trend remains bullish, and shorter-term momentum remains bullish.
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX) trend remains bullish, and shorter-term momentum remains bullish.
- Silver futures contract ($SILVER) trend remains bullish, and shorter-term momentum remains bullish.
- Copper futures contract ($COPPER) trend remains indecisive, and shorter-term momentum turned indecisive.
- Crude Oil futures contract ($WTIC) trend remains bearish, and shorter-term momentum remains bearish.
- Of the 11 major U.S. industry sectors, 8 are bullish, 3 are indecisive, and none are bearish.
- Energy trend turned bullish last week.
- Three sectors are indecisive: Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate turned indecisive last week.
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11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
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Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, which is the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.
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Ranking ETFs
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
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