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The Bull is back!

Stock Price Indicators

Major stock price indexes rebounded to new all-time highs. The benchmark S&P 500 index jumped 12.33% over the past 13 trading days—the biggest upthrust in six years since April 2020. Such strong momentum is significant because many bull markets began with similar large upthrusts. The technology-weighted, large-cap NASDAQ Composite is even stronger, up 17.67%.

The equal-weight S&P 500 is lagging behind at only +8.02%. Although that is the strongest momentum since May 2025 and a bullish sign, it indicates that large-cap stocks are dominating the bullish action and smaller stocks are relatively less in demand.

Momentum and Breadth

Long-term momentum remains positive and has gained strength across short- and intermediate-term time frames. Of 38 major markets we track each week:

• 82% are above their 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), up from 58% a week ago.
• 87% are above their 200-day SMAs, up from 76% a week ago.
• 79% maintain a bullish long-term configuration (50-day SMA above 200-day SMA), up from 76% a week ago.

Within the S&P 500, 61.0% of stocks trade above their 50-day SMAs (up from 43.6% a week ago), and 61.6% are above their 200-day SMAs (up from 54.2%).

The Cumulative Daily Advance–Decline Line (A/D Line) rebounded to new all-time highs to confirm the new highs for the major price indexes.

Net New Highs jumped to +183 from -152 in March; readings above zero for new highs minus new lows are bullish.

Sentiment Indicators

Investor confidence for the stock market rose substantially after giving contrarian buy signals in March. The VIX Index fell to a moderately below-average level of 17.48, down from a peak of 31.65 on March 27 (which was more than two standard deviations above its 10-year mean of 18.79). The AAII Bulls/Bears survey recorded 31.7% bullish versus 42.8% bearish, reflecting significantly less pessimism than in March. The Put/Call Ratio plunged to 0.45, down from a peak of 0.90 in March, indicating a marked shift from pessimism (puts) to optimism (calls). The CNN Investor Sentiment Index indicates rising optimistic Greed at 68, its highest level since July 2025. In March, it ranged from 14 to 18, placing it deep into the Extreme Fear zone—a historically bullish condition. Although sentiment is more optimistic, it is not yet so excessive as to justify a contrary opinion.

Sector and Market Rotation

The large-cap S&P 500 ETF (SPY) outperformed the equal-weight ETF (RSP) since March 31, reversing a period of underperformance that began October 29. The SPY/RSP ratio crossed above both the 20-, 50-, and 200-day SMAs, suggesting the market currently prefers mega-cap leadership.

The Technology ETF (XLK, 154.30) soared to a new all-time high and outperformed since February 5. XLK crossed above major SMAs, and the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA on Friday April 17, giving a "golden cross" buy signal. The pessimism about AI from November to February is reversing, and short sellers are getting squeezed.

The Energy stocks succumbed to profit-taking following a steep three-month uptrend. The S&P 500 Energy Sector SPDR (XLE, 55.02) fell from a peak of 63.46 on March 30, 2026, and broke down below its 50-day SMA (now at 57). This was a short-term bearish technical signal that could lead to further downside risk.

International equities rose on hopes for a lasting peace agreement with Iran. The Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and EAFE ETF (EFA) are rising above all SMAs, and the 50-day SMAs have remained above the 200-day SMAs, which is bullish. All trends point to EEM outperforming EFA.

The China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) has underperformed the S&P 500 for 19 years since 2007. It fell to its lowest price level since May 2025 on March 27, confirming the "death cross" on March 11, 2026, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Technical conditions indicate continuing underperformance; exposure should be avoided.

Currencies, Commodities, and Fixed Income

The U.S. Dollar Index ETF (UUP, 27.36) broke down below all SMAs, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA; the U.S. Dollar is clearly bearish.

Precious and industrial metals remain sensitive to conflict news, and prices rose after the Iran ceasefire. Gold Miners (GDX), Copper (CPER), and Silver (SLV) crossed above their 50-day SMAs, turning bullish. Gold (GLD) lagged below its 50-day SMA, now at 449.79, where it may encounter upside resistance. Although metals have partially recovered, they are lagging the major stock price indexes.

Energy markets reversed to the downside on ceasefire news. WTI Crude Oil (CLK26, 82.59) fell from a peak of 117.63 on April 7, while the Oil ETF (USO, 117.00) fell from a peak of 143.98. While long-term technical trends remain bullish, short-term performance may see further correction or consolidation.

U.S. fixed income prices have partially recovered from their March 27 lows. The Long Bond ETF (TLT) and U.S. Note ETF (IEF) remain below their 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMAs are below the 200-day SMAs. Consequently, this technical structure remains bearish.