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Technical Market Indicators
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November 12, 2018
Foreign stocks remain systematically bearish.
Preview from my weekly report*
U. S. stock market indexes appear uncertain for the short term. The recent 7-day rally attempt lacked rising volume, suggesting insufficient bullish confidence needed to sustain an advance.
Sentiment currently appears mixed and more neutral, compared to extremely oversold in October.
Historically, seasonal tendencies have been about neutral from 11/13 to 11/16.
It is common for short-term trends to change frequently and with little warning.
The medium-term trend indicators deteriorated as stock prices declined in October. They appear to be consistent with a Secondary Reaction, a significant downside correction.
Long-term trends could be in the process of changing. Note that long-term uptrends tend to change very slowly--and long-term trend change can be confirmed only after a substantial time lag and after a substantial price decline.
Medium-term U.S. stock sector rotation still favors defensive sectors: Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Health Care are outperforming. That reflects cautious or bearish sentiment.
Cyclical sectors are underperforming: Energy, Industrial, Materials, Technology, and Financial are relatively weak. That reflects a loss of bullish confidence.
United States Oil ETF (USO) remained under pressure, falling to new 7-month lows.
The Energy stock sector ETF (XLE) turned down on Thursday and appears likely to turn systematically bearish from neutral in days ahead.
The recovery attempt for the Metals (Gold, Silver, and Copper) collapsed. Metals turned systematically bearish from systematically neutral.
Agriculture turned down and is danger of turning systematically bearish again.
Prices of fixed-income Notes and Bonds remain systematically bearish.
The U.S. Dollar remains systematically bullish.
Emerging Markets and Foreign stocks remain systematically bearish.
The full report offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:
� Global stock markets
� The Defensive stock sectors
� The Health Care sector
� The Cyclical sectors
� The Technology sector
� The Financials sector
� U.S. bonds and notes
� Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture)
� Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds
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or by email: anderson@colbyassetmanagement.com
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --
click here.
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11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
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See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis
MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 200 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements.
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
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Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.
Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member of the MTA since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the MTA Educational Foundation (www.mtaef.org), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. Please click the following banner for information about the Market Technicians Association.
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs",
Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
Please click here to view this article.
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INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
Please click here to view this article.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships.
See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this article.
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this free article.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this free article..
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?"
by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
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TradingMarkets.com interviewed
Robert W. Colby, CMT.
View the entire interview online.
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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."
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For information about
methods
that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
Please click here to contact Colby directly.
Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index.
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MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis
MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 200 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements.
Great new version just released May, 2018.
Click this link to save 7%-9% on MetaStock®
software.
Or, click the banner below for a one-month free trial.
