|technical analysis, trading systems, investing, market-timing methods, stock market, money management
Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
December 31, 2018
Consider a change for 2019.
Preview from my weekly report*
Happy New Year!
If you lost money in 2018, you may wish to consider a change for 2019. Our asset management clients made strong positive returns in 2018, comparable to the best-performing hedge funds--but without paying the high fees that hedge funds charge. We offer complete transparency and anytime access to your funds. You keep control over your money.
This December, most stock market price indexes broke down below their lows the year, 2018, to confirm a major stock market downtrend.
Only 20% of the S&P 500 stocks now are above their 200-day simple moving averages, up modestly from a low of 11% on 12/24/2018.
Historically, seasonal tendencies have been bullish for the last week of December through to January 11, 2019. This suggests that some further price recovery attempt may be possible, although definitely not guaranteed.
Sentiment indicators are extremely oversold--but that does not necessarily prevent prices from moving lower, as we recently have seen.
Medium-term U.S. stock sector rotation still favors defensive sectors: Utilities, Health Care, and Consumer Staples are outperforming. That reflects bearish sentiment.
Cyclical sectors are underperforming: Energy, Industrial, Financial, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials are relatively weak. That reflects a lack of bullish confidence.
MidCap and SmallCap stock price indexes remain relatively weak. That also reflects a lack of bullish confidence.
United States Oil ETF (USO) remains relatively weak and systematically bearish.
Fixed-income US Treasury Notes and Bonds prices continue to outperform High-Yield Junk Bonds, reflecting bearish market sentiment.
The U.S. Dollar remains in an uptrend, but it needs to hold above December's lows in order to maintain its uptrend.
Global stocks, both U.S. and foreign, remain mostly systematically bearish.
The full report offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:
Global stock markets
The Defensive stock sectors
The Health Care sector
The Cyclical sectors
The Technology sector
The Financials sector
U.S. bonds and notes
Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture)
Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds
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11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
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See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
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