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April 15, 2019
Stock market bullish momentum persists--but stocks now are even more overbought.
Preview from my weekly report*
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The S&P 500 rose 0.51% last week to its highest price level since 10/4/2018.
Bullish momentum (RSI and MACD) is less than in February, however, thereby demonstrating bearish momentum divergence.
The SmallCap (IWM) stock price index ETF peaked on 2/25/19 and is continuing its bearish divergence compared to the LargeCap (SPY) ETF.
The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above 50-day SMAs is 81%, versus 92% on 3/1/19.
The percentage above 200-day SMAs is 71%, its highest level since 9/21/2018.
Sentiment indicators are even more extremely overbought.
Historically, seasonal tendencies have been mostly bullish for April.
Long-term U.S. stock sector rotation is giving a mixed message: the defensive Real Estate and Utilities still are leading, but the more cyclical Technology and Industrial sectors also are showing strength.
Meanwhile, the following sectors remain relatively weak for the long term: Energy, Financial, Materials, and Communication Services.
The U.S. Dollar reversed to the downside last week but remains systematically bullish. Global investors prefer the U.S. Dollar when they lack confidence in the global economy.
Gold (GLD) has sagged lower since peaking on 2/19/2019 and remains no better than neutral. Silver (SLV) is weaker than gold and is leading the way to lower prices.
Crude Oil (USO) continued its 3-month price recovery last week. Oil is very overbought for the short term and remains systematically neutral for the long term.
U.S. Treasury bond prices fell last week but remain systematically bullish for the long term. Downside technical corrections are normal during bullish trends.
$VIX Volatility Index is even more overbought . It fell to 11.95 on 4/12/19, which was the lowest level since 10/5/2018, near the peak of stock prices. Fear in the stock market has been absent this year, while bullish complacency has dominated. Extremely low Implied Volatility has preceded every past financial market dislocation. Precise pinpoint market timing is not included with this indicator, however.
The full report offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:
Global stock markets
The Defensive stock sectors
The Health Care sector
The Cyclical sectors
The Technology sector
The Financials sector
U.S. bonds and notes
Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture)
Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
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Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.
Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the Market Technicians Association (www.mta.org) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member of the MTA since 1980, and he strongly supports the MTA's high standards. He also supports the MTA Educational Foundation (www.mtaef.org), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. Please click the following banner for information about the Market Technicians Association.
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs",
Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
Please click here to view this article.
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INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships.
See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this article.
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"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this free article.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?"
by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
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TradingMarkets.com interviewed
Robert W. Colby, CMT.
View the entire interview online.
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Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."
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For information about
methods
that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
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MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis
MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 200 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements.
Great new version just released May, 2018.
Click this link to save 7%-9% on MetaStock®
software.
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