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technical analysis, trading systems, investing, market-timing methods, stock market, money management *www.robertwcolby.com* Technical Market Indicators Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion

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	*March 27, 2020* *Stock Market: fearful markets are erratic.* Preview from my weekly report* Our asset management clients have made significantly positive absolute and relative returns while taking much less risk. We offer complete transparency, anytime access to your funds, and low fees. You keep control over your money. See: *ColbyAssetManagement.com* Violent short-covering rallies are common in major bear market downtrends. Extreme price volatility and large price swings have become the new normal. At Monday's extreme low, at 2191.86 on the S&P 500 index, stocks appeared to be extremely oversold by normal standards. But of course, these are not normal times. Could that have been a bottom, or even the bottom? Anything is possible, but it is too risky to try to guess at a bottom. Last week's 3-day oversold bounce proves nothing. It may take more time before the potential reward outweighs the potential risk. We have been out of the stock market since late January. Even traditional safe-haven investments (U.S. Treasury bonds, notes, and gold) have been too volatile to provide protection during the recent general liquidation (indiscriminate selling pressure), leaving cash as the only truly safe alternative. Extreme market volatility makes holding cash the safest investment strategy to control risk and protect capital. For now, keep calm, stay safe, and be patient. U.S. Treasury bond (TLT) partially recovered following unprecedented large losses and indiscriminate selling this month. Even normally safe-haven investments have been too volatile to trade in the current market climate of fear and uncertainty. Gold (GLD) jumped up above key SMAs but stopped short of resistance near previous highs. GLD has been unreliable as a safe-haven amid the general scramble for liquidity. Gold Miners (GDX) turned systematically bearish last week when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Silver (SLV) turned systematically bearish last week when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. SLV is more of an industrial metal, and SLV has failed to attract safe-haven money flows. Copper (JJCTF) remains systematically bearish, with price below both its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and with the 50 below the 200. The price of Copper is sensitive to prospects for global economic growth, which investors fear may be substantially dampened by the spread of coronavirus. Oil (USO) price remains in a systematically bearish position, as it languishes far below its key SMAs and far below its previous all-time low at 7.67 set on 2/11/2016. Sentiment remains extremely bearish. Such extreme pessimism can make the stock market vulnerable to violent short-covering rallies, which can be further enhanced by algorithmic, machine buying. We have to be cautious about attempting to use The Art Contrary Thinking, however, because fearful markets are erratic, and sentiment is a background factor that is not always useful for precise trade timing. Sentiment extremes are often early, and price momentum can sustain a trend in motion beyond sentiment extremes. Sentiment follows price trends and can remain at extremes for a long time. $VIX Volatility Index remains oversold at 65.54. It soared to an extremely oversold level of 85.47 intraday on 3/18/2020, its highest level since the financial crisis of 2008. $VIX is up from a below-average and overbought 12.10 on 1/17/2020. The AAII investor sentiment survey remains extremely oversold, with 32.90% Bullish, 15.03% Neutral, and 52.07% Bearish. The Equity Put/Call Ratio eased to a neutral 0.70. It reached an extremely oversold 1.28 on 3/12/2020, its highest and most extreme level since the financial crisis of 2008. Options speculators typically react to the price action: when stock prices go up they trade more calls, and when stock prices go down they trade more puts. The Art of Contrary Thinking would suggest becoming more bullish as this P/C ratio rises toward extremely high levels and more bearish as it falls to extremely low levels--subject to the more important trend and momentum considerations. The CNN Money Fear & Greed Index now at 23 remains extremely fearful and oversold. It fell into 0-10 range this month, down from overbought and extremely greedy levels in the 90-100 range in early January, 2020. For details, see http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ *The full report offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:* Global stock markets The Defensive stock sectors The Health Care sector The Cyclical sectors The Technology sector The Financials sector U.S. bonds and notes Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture) Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds Now is the time to take action. Preserve your capital by placing your assets under our careful management--before the next major bear market of -20% to -50% devastates most portfolios. Make no mistake, the ongoing global economic and financial crisis has not been fixed by any sound or lasting solution. History shows that the authorities will not protect you or give you any advance warning--but we will. If you agree that making money while staying safe is better than taking big risks in the stock market and exposing your nest egg to potentially ruinous losses, we would be very happy to implement our time-tested strategies for all of your assets. It makes good sense to choose protection--especially at this time when the financial world is stretched out of proportion. We are always happy to discuss your goals and concerns and answer all your questions. Call us now for a free consultation. Please contact Bill Anderson by phone: 646-652-6879 or by email: anderson@colbyassetmanagement.com For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report -- click here. This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk. (Check out the great new version XVII released November, 2019) Click this link to save 9%-10% on MetaStock®* software. 11-Year Outperformance by the Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance. Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL. *See The Colby Global Markets Report* (click here). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 250 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements. Click this link to save 9%-10% on MetaStock®** software. Or, click the banner below for a one-month free trial. My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study. Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules. According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown. Trading and investing involve risk of significant loss. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.	.

				Syndicate content on these pages Email Colby about his Custom Research, Analysis, Trading Systems Development, and Investment Strategy Consulting Services. Subscribe to The Colby Global Markets Report *MetaStock®* technical analysis software powers this technical analysis. SAVE 7%-9% by ordering here. Great new version just released November, 2019. Preview Colby's Latest Book: *The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators*, Second Edition, 2003. Dow Theory Analysis Gann Angles Analysis Update on EMA Crossover Signals Money Management Rules How To Become A Top Trader. Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using "Annual Relative Advantage". Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index". Robert W. Colby, CMT, is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing. Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the *CMT Association (https://cmtassociation.org/)* after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the CMT Association's high standards. He also supports the *The Technical Analysis Educational Foundation (https://www.taeducation.org/about/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. "Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators." --Bill Meridian, top-ranked investment analyst and international fund manager, www.billmeridian.com Please click here to contact Colby directly. Privacy Policy: Your privacy is important to us. It is strictly against the policy of this website to employ spam, popups, ad ware, or spy ware. Copyright © 2000-2020 by www.robertwcolby.com. All rights reserved. Except as permitted under the United States Copyright act of 1976, no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a data base or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher. However, quotations are permitted, provided that full attribution is given to: www.robertwcolby.com* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ranking ETFs "Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", *Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue,* June 4, 2007. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in *Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES* magazine, December 2006 issue. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this free article. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs." by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Please click here to view this free article.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . "PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in *SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TradingMarkets.com* interviewed Robert W. Colby, CMT. View the entire interview online. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *Active Trader* magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised *Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff." . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . For information about methods* that would have *performed substantially better* than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link: Please click here to contact Colby directly. Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 200 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements. Great new version just released November, 2019. Click this link to save 7%-9% on *MetaStock®* software. Or, click the banner below for a one-month free trial.