|technical analysis, trading systems, investing, market-timing methods, stock market, money management
Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
June 17, 2019
Stock Market: week-ahead headlines on Fed policy,
trade-wars, and Iran could provide greater price volatility.
Preview from my weekly report*
Our asset management clients have outperformed and made positive absolute and risk-adjusted returns--even as the S&P 500 fell 6.24% in 2018 and is now 1.83% below its peak at 2940.91 on 9/21/2018. We offer complete transparency, anytime access to your funds, and low fees. You keep control over your money. See: ColbyAssetManagement.com
Sentiment indicators are less oversold, indicating diminishing pessimism and fear of downside price risk. Next week may test this more complacent market mood.
The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day SMAs rose to 57%, an increase of 27 percentage points from 30% on 5/31/19. Short-term stock market momentum has improved from bearish to neutral.
Historically, seasonal tendencies show that stocks generally have been unsettled in the month of June. The current political and economic backdrop appears to support an unsettled market.
Although the LargeCap S&P 500 stock price index ETF (SPY) is now only 1.93% below its 52-weeks high, the following index ETFs are underperforming and bearishly diverging: SmallCap (IWM) is 12.49% below its high, Dow-Jones Transportation (IYT) is 11.22% below its high, Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) 10.63% below, BRIC (BKF) 9.55% below, Foreign Developed Markets (EFA) 7.86% below, MidCap (MDY) 7.28% below, NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) 4.54% below, and Dow-Jones Industrial (DIA) 2.89% below.
Long-term U.S. stock sector rotation continues to send a mixed message. Both defensive and cyclical sectors are demonstrating the best trend strength: Technology, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Utilities sectors are strongest.
Meanwhile, the following sectors remain relatively weak for the long term: Energy, Health Care, Materials, and Financial.
Foreign and Emerging stock markets remain weaker than U.S. stock indexes. Foreign markets are important because they have led the U.S. stock market at important price turning points in recent years.
The U.S. Dollar reversed strongly to the upside, turning systematically bullish again for the long term.
Gold (GLD) continued to move higher last week and remains systematically bullish. Gold Miners (GDX) also are bullish, but Silver (SLV) continues to underperform Gold.
U.S. Treasury bonds remain systematically bullish for the long term but still appear overbought for the short term, raising the possibility of a further downward-or-sideways price correction in days ahead. Traders buy U.S. bonds when they are concerned about risks to global stability.
The full report offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:
Global stock markets
The Defensive stock sectors
The Health Care sector
The Cyclical sectors
The Technology sector
The Financials sector
U.S. bonds and notes
Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture)
Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds
Now is the time to take action. Preserve your capital by placing your assets under our careful management--before the next major bear market of -20% to -50% devastates most portfolios.
Make no mistake, the ongoing global economic and financial crisis has not been fixed by any sound or lasting solution. History shows that the authorities will not protect you or give you any advance warning--but we will.
If you agree that making money while staying safe is better than taking big risks in the stock market and exposing your nest egg to potentially ruinous losses, we would be very happy to implement our time-tested strategies for all of your assets. It makes good sense to choose protection--especially at this time when the financial world is stretched out of proportion.
We are always happy to discuss your goals and concerns and answer all your questions.
Call us now for a free consultation.
by phone: 646-652-6879
or by email: email@example.com
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk. (Check out the great new version XVI released May, 2018)
11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis
MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 200 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements.
Click this link to save 9%-10% on MetaStock® software.
Or, click the banner below for a one-month free trial.
My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Trading and investing involve risk of significant loss. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Syndicate content on these pages