March 2, 2026

Preview from my weekly report*

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Unknown war risks create potentials for unpredictable price volatility over the short term. 

• Expect heightened volatility as war developments unfold.
• Global stock markets remain in major uptrends for the long term.
• Dow Theory remains bullish long term. The Dow Theory again confirmed the major bull market trend earlier this February and has been consolidating gains in recent weeks. It is bullish when both the Industrial Average and the Transportation Average rise to new all-time, closing-price highs.
• Some US stock price indexes have been stuck in medium-term consolidations since October, going nowhere in sideways trading ranges.
• The NASDAQ 100 index ETF (QQQ) sagged and moderately underperformed the S&P 500 big-cap index ETF (SPY) since late October, following its strong outperformance from the April low.
• The S&P 500 index ETF (SPY) underperformed the unweighted S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP). The SPY is weighted by the biggest stocks, mainly the technology stocks.
• Unweighted S&P 500 stocks remain bullish. The S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) rose to a new closing-price high on Friday 2/27/2026.
• The MidCap ETF (MDY) also remains bullish. It rose to a new high on 2/20/2026 and held up well during last week’s market volatility.
• The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) has been consolidating previous gains. IWM has been moving sideways since peaking on 1/22/2026. It has stayed fairly near that high, suggesting underlying strength.
• Select Sectors remain bullish. The following industry sector ETFs rose to new highs this month, confirming major uptrends: XLE, XLC, XLU, XLI, XLB, XLRE, and XLP.
• A-D Line remains bullish. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline rose to another new all-time high on Thursday 2/26/2026, again confirming the uptrend for the full list of NYSE stocks.
• Net New Highs remain bullish. Now at 135, Highs minus Lows remains well above the zero dividing line. It rose to 337 on Wednesday 2/11/2026, the highest level in 52 weeks and a bullish confirmation.  
• Price/SMA ratios remain bullish. Of the S&P 500 stocks, a 62.8% majority are above their trailing 50-day Simple Moving Averages, and a 67.4% majority are above their trailing 200-day SMAs. Both remain at high levels. 
• Relative strength rotation is subject to change, depending on war news. Since November 2025, leadership has rotated away from last year's mega-cap tech leaders. The popular view that AI enthusiasm has been overdone has contributed to cheaper valuations for technology stocks. The Technology ETF (XLK) price recently has found support above its November-February lows and above its 200-day SMA at 136.16. Technology is critical for waging war, so the sideways trading range and underperformance of XLK could prove temporary. Watch for technical support above the 135.07 low of 2/5/2026 for XLK.
• Sentiment remains bullish. $VIX and Put/Call Ratios spiked to 2 standard deviations above their means this month, while CNN Investor Sentiment fell into the Fear zone. Fear is bullish, according to The Art of Contrary Opinion.
• International equities remain mostly bullish. Foreign stock indexes (except for China) rose to higher highs last week, reinforcing bullish momentum. Emerging Markets (EEM) made a new high on 2/25/2026, and EAFE Developed Markets (EFA) made a new high on 2/27/2026.
• China stocks ETF (FXI) broke down to its lowest price since 7/31/2025 and appears to be heading toward a “death cross” in weeks ahead—which is recognized when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA.
• US Dollar remains technically bearish, although war news could motivate safe-haven trades. The US Dollar ETF (UUP, 27.08) fell to 4-year lows on 1/27/2026 and signaled a “death cross” 2/3/2026—which is recognized when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA.
• Metals are safe-haven trades on war news. Gold Miners (GDX) rose to a new high on Friday. Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV), and Copper (CPER) entered short-term uptrends in anticipation of war. Expect heightened volatility as war developments unfold.
• Oil remains bullish and will be more volatile as war news unfolds. The Crude Oil ETF (USO) rose to its highest price in 7 months since last June as war fears escalate. USO signaled a “golden cross” this February—which is recognized when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA. Expect heightened volatility as war developments unfold.
• US fixed-income bonds and notes are safe-haven trades on war news. US note and bond prices rose further above their highest prices since October. The long bond ETF (TLT) 50-day SMA crossed above the flat 200-day SMA on 2/25/2026 for a “golden cross”.

11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).

My book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac. This book also received an excellent review in Futures Magazine.

My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.

Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.

According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

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Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, which is the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.

Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the CMT Association (https://cmtassociation.org/) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the CMT Association's high standards. He also supports the The Technical Analysis Educational Foundation (https://www.taeducation.org/about/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. "The CMT Association is the national organization of investment analysts, stock market analysis professionals, and certified market technicians in the United States."

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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
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