March 23, 2026

Preview from my weekly report*

Our Colby CDT program outperformed the S&P 500® Index last year. All of our asset management clients have made significantly positive relative returns over the past 15 years while taking substantially less risk. We offer complete transparency, anytime access to your funds, and low fees. You keep control over your money. See: ColbyAssetManagement.com

War Fear intensifies, but Extreme Fear is bullish according to The Art of Contrary Opinion.

• War fears have caused heightened volatility and increasing short-term price weakness for global markets over the past three weeks. Stock indexes are clearly trending down but could reverse to the upside suddenly if the war ends.
• Long-term momentum is still bullish.
• Downside momentum has increased over three time frames.  
• Of our 38 major markets, only a 13% minority are now above their own 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), indicating a worsening downside price correction for the short term.
• From a somewhat longer-term perspective, a 55% majority now are above their own 200-day SMAs—but that is down from 82% just two weeks ago.
• Regarding the long-term major trend, an 84% majority remain bullish (with the 50-day SMAs above 200-day SMAs), down from 92% two weeks ago.
• Price/SMA ratios for all stocks in the S&P 500 index show a similar picture: only 21.0% are above their trailing 50-day SMAs, and 45.2% are above their trailing 200-day SMAs.
• A-D Line reflects the worsening short-term price pullback. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline fell for the third consecutive week to an 11-week low, declining further below its 50-day SMA. Longer term, the A-D Line remains above its 200-day SMA, and the 50/200 SMAs ratio remains bullish.
• Net New Highs indicate relatively moderate damage. Currently at -162, the lowest since last April when it hit -1161, the Highs-minus-Lows reading is moderately bearish below the zero dividing line.
• Relative strength rotation has shifted following war news. The previously-strong, equal-weight RSP underperformed large-cap SPY and QQQ since the war started on 2/28/2026. Meanwhile, the QQQ and Technology ETF (XLK) both outperformed SPY. The popular view that AI enthusiasm has been overdone has contributed to cheaper valuations for technology stocks—a sector that remains critical in a wartime environment.
• Energy stands out as the only strong sector amid all the weakness. The S&P 500 Energy Sector SPDR (XLE, 59.31) jumped to a new all-time price high last week as Crude Oil WTI May '26 (CLk26, 98.23) rose to its highest closing price since May 2022. Oil and oil stocks have dominated markets since the conflict began three weeks ago.
• Fearful sentiment is bullish. $VIX spiked to 29.28 on Friday, 3/20/2026, remaining below the previous peak of 35.3 on 3/09/2026. AAII Bulls/Bears reflected increasing pessimism at 30%/52%, compared to 32%/46% last week. The Put/Call Ratio jumped to 2 standard deviations above its 20-day average. CNN Investor Sentiment fell from a peak of 66 on 1/28/2026 to 15 on Friday, placing it deep within the Extreme Fear zone—a bullish signal according to The Art of Contrary Opinion.
• International equities underperformed over the past three weeks. EEM fell further below its 50-day SMA and 100-day SMA but remains above its still rising 200-day SMA. EFA broke down below its 200-day SMA and has underperformed EEM for more than two years . Short-term trends both are pointing lower.
• China stocks ETF index (FXI) broke down to its lowest price level since 6/2/2025. FXI signaled a “death cross” on 3/11/2026, occurring when the 50-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA. Continue to avoid FXI.
• US Dollar eased lower after RSI hit overbought at 77 on 3/13/2026. The US Dollar ETF (UUP, 27.68) remains above all major SMAs, though some volatility is to be expected in this wartime environment.
• Metals declined despite worsening war news and may be vulnerable to further downside. Gold Miners (GDX), Silver (SLV), Copper (CPER), and Gold (GLD) fell below their 50-day and 100-day SMAs. Given the war news, this is not bullish price action, and the poor performance suggests a need for downside protection.
• Oil remains bullish. The Crude Oil WTI May '26 futures contract (CLk26, 98.23) rose to its highest closing price since May 2022, while the Oil ETF (USO) reached its highest price since October 2018. Prices are in strong uptrends, though they could reverse quickly if the war ends.
• US fixed-income bond and note prices fell steeply as oil rose. Investors fear that rising energy costs will drive inflation and interest rates higher. The long US bond ETF (TLT), US Note ETF (IEF), US Aggregate bond (AGG), High-Yield Corporate (HYG), and TIPS (TIP) all broke down below their 50-day SMAs and 200-day SMAs. Prices are in downtrends for the short term–but the future path may depend on war news.

11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).

My book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac. This book also received an excellent review in Futures Magazine.

My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.

Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.

According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.

Trading and investing involve risk of significant loss. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.            

Syndicate content on these pages

Email Colby about his Custom Research, Analysis, Trading Systems Development, and Investment Strategy
Consulting Services.

Subscribe to our weekly Colby Global Markets Report

MetaStock® technical analysis software powers this technical analysis. Get a free trial and discount price by ordering here.

Preview Colby's Book:
The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators.

Dow Theory Analysis

Gann Angles Analysis

Update on EMA Crossover Signals

Money Management Rules

How To Become A Top Trader.

Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using
"Annual Relative Advantage".

Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".

Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, which is the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.

Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the CMT Association (https://cmtassociation.org/) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the CMT Association's high standards. He also supports the The Technical Analysis Educational Foundation (https://www.taeducation.org/about/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. "The CMT Association is the national organization of investment analysts, stock market analysis professionals, and certified market technicians in the United States."

Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators."
--Bill Meridian, top-ranked investment analyst and international fund manager, www.billmeridian.com

Privacy Policy: Your privacy is important to us. It is strictly against the policy of this website to employ spam, popups, ad ware, or spy ware.

Copyright © 2000-2025
by www.robertwcolby.com.
All rights reserved.
Except as permitted under the
United States Copyright act of 1976,
no part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a data base or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
However, quotations are permitted, provided that full attribution is given to: www.robertwcolby.com

Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
Please click here to view this article.

INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
Please click here to view this article.

"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this article.

"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this free article.

"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this free article..

"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)

TradingMarkets.com interviewed
Robert W. Colby, CMT.
View the entire interview online.

Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."

For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
Please click here to contact Colby directly.

Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index.

MetaStock® PC Software for Technical Analysis is a powerful program for your personal computer. It offers more than 250 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements. Click this link for a risk-free trial and discount price on MetaStock® software.