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Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
September 20, 2021
Stock Market Outlook: the global monetary system is stressed to an extreme.
Preview from my weekly report*
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The S&P 500 fell 8 of the past 10 trading days. There are growing worries about:
weak seasonal tendencies,
diminishing economic and profit growth going forward,
political fighting over the US debt ceiling, with the possibility of technical default,
runaway inflation, and
tapering of the Fed's $120 billion a month bond buying program.
Many technical market indicators have given early warning of a stock price downturn as they diverged bearishly relative to the S&P 500 for many months and, thereby, gave clear signs of diminished price momentum and diminished bullish power for the broader market.
Investor sentiment indicators shifted toward less bullish complacency as prices declined, which is normal, but it could take some time to work off previous extreme levels of overbought Greed.
Unprecedented stimulating monetary and fiscal policies globally have been encouraging inflation and speculation more than real economic growth. Consequently, stocks are overpriced, discounting an extremely optimistic future while ignoring growing risks.
Now might be a good time to review Warren Buffett's top 2 investment rules:
Number 1) Never lose money.
Number 2) Don't forget rule Number 1.
Capital preservation is the most important factor in wealth creation. Capital preservation comes first, before all other priorities. We should thoroughly understand the risks and rewards before committing capital. Investing is not gambling. Never follow hunches, tips, impressions, fashions, or fads that you do not completely understand. Big losses can happen quickly in carless investments. And history shows that significant corrections and bear markets are normal and expected for the stock market.
The global monetary system is stressed to an extreme, due to soaring debt and unprecedented fiat-currency money printing by central banks. History shows that inflation follows excessive money printing. Indeed, over the past 50 years, the world has seen the most inflation ever. "Since the money we use today isn't generally tied to anything, that gives policymakers a lot more scope to use inflationary policies.... Don't take it for granted that the monetary system of the last 50 years will survive your whole career," warns Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank's chief credit strategist.
Our full report reviews indicators that we monitor every day and offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:
Global stock markets
The Defensive stock sectors
The Health Care sector
The Cyclical sectors
The Technology sector
The Financials sector
U.S. bonds and notes
Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture)
Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds
Now is the time to take action. Preserve your capital by placing your assets under our careful management--before the next major bear market of -20% to -50% devastates most portfolios.
Make no mistake, the ongoing global economic and financial crisis has not been fixed by any sound or lasting solution. History shows that the authorities will not protect you or give you any advance warning--but we will.
If you agree that making money while staying safe is better than taking big risks in the stock market and exposing your nest egg to potentially ruinous losses, we would be very happy to implement our time-tested strategies for all of your assets. It makes good sense to choose protection--especially at this time when the financial world is stretched out of proportion.
We are always happy to discuss your goals and concerns and answer all your questions.
Call us now for a free consultation.
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Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
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