|technical analysis, trading systems, investing, market-timing methods, stock market, money management
Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
April 12, 2021
Stock Market Outlook: Animal Spirits Running Wild!
Preview from my weekly report*
Our asset management clients have made significantly positive relative returns while taking much less risk. We offer complete transparency, anytime access to your funds, and low fees. You keep control over your money. See: ColbyAssetManagement.com
To summarize the current situation, short-term momentum is pointing higher, but longer-term Probable Potential Reward appears less than Probable Potential Risk for the stock market.
We ask ourselves a few questions. Is the economy stronger than ever? Are businesses in better shape than ever? Are most people better off than ever? Is the world safer than ever? Is the outlook actually better than ever? Well, then, why are stock prices higher than ever?
Irrational Exuberance is nothing more than investor enthusiasm run amuck, driving asset prices higher than fundamentals justify. All things must pass, so this too will end--it always does, no exceptions. Overblown price bubbles ultimately pop and are followed by market panic. Unfortunately, very few investors will be able to spot the turning point before it is too late.
Stock prices have run far ahead of quantifiable reality. Stocks are overbought and overvalued relative to traditional measures: earnings, dividend yields, and book value. Stocks are priced for an extremely optimistic future, ignoring all potential bumps in the inherently unpredictable road ahead. History shows that overly high stock prices are followed by low returns, and overpaying for stocks is not profitable.
When we buy stocks based on The Greater Fool Theory (that is, buying now while hoping to sell later to an even greater fool following behind us), we must be prepared to sell quickly. We don't intend to be left without a chair when the music stops.
Our full report reviews indicators that we monitor every day and offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:
Global stock markets
The Defensive stock sectors
The Health Care sector
The Cyclical sectors
The Technology sector
The Financials sector
U.S. bonds and notes
Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture)
Objective Quantitative Rankings for hundreds of Exchange Traded Funds
Now is the time to take action. Preserve your capital by placing your assets under our careful management--before the next major bear market of -20% to -50% devastates most portfolios.
Make no mistake, the ongoing global economic and financial crisis has not been fixed by any sound or lasting solution. History shows that the authorities will not protect you or give you any advance warning--but we will.
If you agree that making money while staying safe is better than taking big risks in the stock market and exposing your nest egg to potentially ruinous losses, we would be very happy to implement our time-tested strategies for all of your assets. It makes good sense to choose protection--especially at this time when the financial world is stretched out of proportion.
We are always happy to discuss your goals and concerns and answer all your questions.
Call us now for a free consultation.
by phone: 646-652-6879
or by email: firstname.lastname@example.org
*For extensive coverage of major global markets with illustrative charts, take a free trial for my weekly report --
This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk. (Check out the great new version XVII released November, 2019) Click this link to save 9%-10% on MetaStock® software.
11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
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My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
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MetaStock® is a powerful technical analysis software program for your personal computer. It offers more than 250 built-in indicators and line studies to enable you to explore a wide variety of methods. And it empowers you to build, back test, and optimize custom trading systems to suit your own particular requirements.
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Trading and investing involve risk of significant loss. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
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