|technical analysis, trading systems, investing, market-timing methods, stock market, money management
Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion
December 17, 2018
The medium-term trend stock market indicators have deteriorated further.
Preview from my weekly report*
The Dow Theory is near a critical juncture. The Dow Jones Industrial Average must hold above its 2018 closing price low at 23,533.20 in order to avoid a major sell signal.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average already broke below its 2018 low.
Historically, seasonal tendencies have been bullish from now to year end.
Sentiment is extremely oversold after last week's price drop.
Short-term stock price trends show unmistakable weakness, but short-term trends can change suddenly and frequently. The markets remain subject to substantial headline risk.
The medium-term trend stock market indicators have deteriorated further but still may be consistent with a significant medium-term downside correction.
Only 32.4% of the S&P 500 stocks are above their 200-day simple moving averages. That is the lowest since February, 2016, and it is a sign of significant price weakness.
Long-term trends may be in the process of changing. The more stocks and indexes that break down below their lows the year, 2018, the greater the increase in bearish probabilities.
Medium-term U.S. stock sector rotation still favors defensive sectors: Utilities, Consumer Staples, and Health Care are outperforming. That reflects bearish sentiment.
Cyclical sectors are underperforming: Energy, Financial, Industrial, Materials, Technology, and Consumer Discretionary are relatively weak. That reflects a lack of bullish confidence.
MidCap and SmallCap stock price indexes fell to new lows and remain systematically bearish. That also reflects a lack of bullish confidence.
United States Oil ETF (USO) has stabilized somewhat after an extremely steep price collapse lasting 8 weeks. USO remains oversold--and still subject to headline risk.
Fixed-income US Treasury Notes and Bonds prices are outperforming High-Yield Junk Bonds, reflecting bearish market sentiment.
The U.S. Dollar remains in an uptrend.
Foreign stocks mostly remain systematically bearish.
The full report offers clear and unbiased guidance on the following each week:
Global stock markets
The Defensive stock sectors
The Health Care sector
The Cyclical sectors
The Technology sector
The Financials sector
U.S. bonds and notes
Commodities (Oil, Metals, Agriculture)
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My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
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