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technical analysis, trading systems, investing, market-timing methods, stock market, money management
www.robertwcolby.com
Technical Market Indicators
Dow Theory, W.D. Gann, MetaStock, system tester, indicator builder, custom formulas, momentum, overbought, oversold, buy, sell, signals, top, bottom, Bull, Bear, consolidation, sentiment, contrary opinion |
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January 27, 2025
Preview from my weekly report*
Our clients are avoiding losses and preserving their capital, while we analyze and weigh the evidence every day, carefully calculating probable reward relative to probable risk. We offer complete transparency, anytime access to your funds, and low fees. You keep control over your money. See: ColbyAssetManagement.com
Stock market trend remains bullish.
Highlights from the past week
- The S&P 500 stock price index (symbol: $SPX, 6,101.24) rose 1.74% last week to a new high and remains systematically bullish.
- RSI and MACD short-term price momentum indicators for $SPX have been rising bullishly for 2 weeks but have not yet reached overbought extremes, so the $SPX price rise could have further to run.
- On-Balance Volume (OBV) for $SPX continues to show bullish divergence.
- The equal-weight ETF of S&P 500 (RSP) turned systematically bullish when price crossed above the 50-day SMA on 1/21/2025.
- The NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) remains systematically bullish.
- The majority of S&P 500 stocks now are above their own 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
- The number of Net New Highs ($NYHL), now at +100, is technically bullish.
- The Cumulative Advance-Decline Issues Line turned systematically bullish when it crossed above its 50-day SMA on 1/21/2025.
- Small-capitalization stocks (IWM) appear to have encountered upside resistance at the 50-day SMA, but OBV shows bullish divergence.
- Communication Services Sector SPDR (XLC) turned systematically bullish again on 1/21/2025 when price rose above its 50-day SMA.
- Gold remains systematically bullish, and RSI, MACD, and OBV have confirmed rising momentum. OBV shows bullish divergence.
- Copper remains systematically neutral, but OBV is stronger than price, for a bullish divergence.
- Chinese stock price index ETF (FXI) turned systematically bullish, but price action is vulnerable to policy announcements by both the Chinese Communist Party and the US.
- Crude Oil ($WTIC) fell back into its trading range, perhaps alleviating some inflation fears. OBV shows bearish divergence.
- US dollar ($USD) reversed to the downside, and short-term momentum indicators RSI and MACD show bearish divergence.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here) for our complete analysis of global markets and specific investment rankings.
Every day, we use technical, fundamental, and quantitative analysis to judge the Reward/Risk probabilities of trend continuation or reversal. We strive to control risks and to make sure that all of our clients are safe and protected from large losses. If you want to earn reasonable returns while avoiding large losses, move your wealth to our professional fiduciary asset management. We always put our clients’ best interests first, and we are always here to help you in times of stress.
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Bill Anderson
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11-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by over an 11-year period of real-time weekly tests. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
Please note that my ETF rankings are available by subscription--NOW WITH A NO-RISK FREE TRIAL.
See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here).
My latest book was named one of the top investment books by Stock Trader's Almanac 2005. This book also received an excellent review in the November 2003 issue of Futures.
My ETF Rankings are not investment advice. Rather, they are an objective ongoing research study.
Analysis of market forces may offer a sense of probabilities. But the many variables that can impact market prices are notoriously difficult to predict. And, market analysis is something less than an exact science. So, sound trading tactics are always recommended. See my Money Management Rules.
According to CFTC Rule 4.41, hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profit or losses similar to those shown.
Trading and investing involve risk of significant loss. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
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Email Colby about his Custom Research, Analysis, Trading Systems Development, and Investment Strategy
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The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, 2003.
Dow Theory Analysis
Gann Angles Analysis
Update on EMA Crossover Signals
Money Management Rules
How To Become A Top Trader.
Ranking Indicator Performance to Maximize Profit by using
"Annual Relative Advantage".
Ranking Indicator Performance by the "Profit/Loss Index".
Robert W. Colby, CMT,
is a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, providing regular analytical reports, custom research services, and trading systems tailored to clients' objectives. Clients include the most successful traders and investors in the world. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. Previously, at several large Wall Street firms, Robert worked as a proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. He also was adjunct professor at New York University and New York Institute of Finance, where he developed new courses on technical analysis and market timing.
Robert W. Colby is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), an accreditation granted to members by the CMT Association (https://cmtassociation.org/) after demonstrating professional competence and ethics over a period of many years. Robert has been a member since 1980, and he strongly supports the CMT Association's high standards. He also supports the The Technical Analysis Educational Foundation (https://www.taeducation.org/about/), which works to have technical analysis included in the curriculum of major business schools. "The CMT Association is the national organization of investment analysts, stock market analysis professionals, and certified market technicians in the United States."
Robert W. Colby is America's foremost authority on testing market indicators."
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Ranking ETFs
"Robert Colby has evolved a system that, while hardly foolproof, is pretty clever," wrote Daniel Fisher, "Surfin' ETFs", Forbes, Investment Guide, Special Issue, June 4, 2007.
Please click here to view this article.
INTERVIEW of Robert W. Colby in Technical Analysis of STOCKS & COMMODITIES magazine, December 2006 issue.
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"Gold's next move: History, logic, and intermarket relationships. See if testing gold's relationship to different markets over a 32-year period provides possible trade signals for the yellow metal."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
Please click here to view this article.
"Which gold indicators are best? Divining gold's next move."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"Applying the Relative Strength strategy to ETFs."
by Robert W. Colby, CMT.
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"PUTTING CANDLES TO THE TEST, How Profitable Are They Really?" by Robert W. Colby, CMT. Published in SFO, STOCKS, FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAGAZINE, Volume 5. No. 8. August 2006, pages 91-94. Please click here to buy this article. (Scroll to bottom of linked page.)
TradingMarkets.com interviewed
Robert W. Colby, CMT.
View the entire interview online.
Active Trader magazine September 2004 interviewed Robert W. Colby. 4 pages. "Robert W. Colby: Technical collector. A discussion with Robert W. Colby about technical trading and his revised Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition. By Active Trader Staff."
For information about methods that would have performed substantially better than systematic trend-following in back-testing simulation dating back 32 years, email me by clicking on the following link:
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Click here for a simulated performance graph of one of my trading systems applied to a stock price index.
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