July 20, 2026

Preview from my weekly report*

Our Colby INNOVATION Portfolio is up 59% for the first half of 2026, which is 521% better than the 10% gain for the S&P 500 index. In addition, our Bull/Bear Portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 Index by 64%, and our Fixed-Income Portfolio outperformed the S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index by 91%. All of our clients have made positive returns over the past 15 years while taking substantially less risk. We offer complete transparency, anytime access to your funds, and low fees. Your assets are secure, insured, and you keep control over your money. For details email info@colbyassetmanagement.com or call 646-652-6879.


Market Overview: war news and fear of technology overinvestment lead to rotation of strength and weakness for the short term.


Short-term trends change frequently, often in reaction to the latest news and the fickle emotions of crowd sentiment. Over recent weeks, the escalating conflict with Iran and irrational fears of overinvestment in technology have driven changes in market leaders and laggers, as detailed below. Although short-term trend changes may not be lasting, the long-term major trend of the broad U.S. stock market remains clearly bullish.


The following gave bullish technical trend signals:

Energy Sector SPDR (XLE)

Transportation (IYT)

Regional Banking (KRE)

Real Estate (XLRE)

Consumer Staples (XLP)

Financial (XLF)

Retail (XRT)

The Cumulative Daily Advance–Decline Line (A/D Line)

 

The following gave bearish technical trend signals:

Technology ETF (XLK)

Materials (XLB)

Utilities (XLU)

Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

Copper (CPER)

Precious metals: Silver (SLV), Gold Miners (GDX), and Gold (GLD)

U.S. fixed-income ETFs: TLT, IEF, and AGG


Technology ETF (XLK) fell below its 50-day SMA last week, signaling a  short-term correction. Longer-term, the rising 50-day SMA remains bullish as it continues to rise above the rising 200-day SMA. Look for resistance around 182 and 198. Look for support around the recent low at 170-171 and 163. Fundamentally, there is no evidence of a slowdown in demand, so irrational fears of overinvestment in technology may prove to be temporary.


Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) crossed above its declining 50-day SMA last week, signaling a  short-term upturn. Longer-term, the 50-day SMA remains bullish as it continues to hold above the rising 200-day SMA. Look for resistance around 59 and 63. Look for support around the recent low at 56 and 53. The short-term performance of XLE depends on developments in the war with Iran.


*See The Colby Global Markets Report (click here) for our complete analysis of global markets and specific investment rankings.


Robert W. Colby Can Manage Your Account

This Technical Analysis is made possible by use of MetaStock software. Try it at no risk for 30 days. (Check out the new and improved version 19.) Click this link to save 7%–9% on MetaStock® software.